By Shristi Khadka

Why lock down? What can be its alternative in Nepal?

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Along with the extension of lock down the policy makers are under the constant pressure to reopen. Longer lock down has higher welfare in the society especially when the country do not have sufficient preparedness and no effective ''exit strategy''.

Evaluation criteria for the  reopening of lock down :-

  • Peak infection rate
  • Spread of pandemic over a period of time
  • Death rate and number of potential deaths saved

Why lock down?

  • Infection prevented
  • Life saved
  • Drop in aggregate consumption

Timing and ending of lock down measures:-

  1. 32 weeks :The consumption alleviates initially but again starts with second round of recession.
  2. 64 weeks : Peak infection drops slightly without significantly changing mortality, consumption drops but avoids persistent recession consumption and employment immediately regains its original pace.

 

Testing and home quarantine:

  • Drop in peak infection and mortality nearly by half
  • Consumption, employment also decreases by half

Testing and strict quarantine

  • Greatly reduces peak infection and total deaths nearly by 10 times
  • Consumption and employment decreases without much recession

Government should take this opportunity in preparedness to get rid of pandemic and they should build quarantine capacity as much as possible. They should focus on finding ways that can reduce increment of peak level infection. Government should strengthen the health system. Increased in investments and research should be done on public health sector.

What can be the alternative of lock down?

If we look from epidemiological model, if we become able to spread the virus for longer duration without much peak infection then it is possible that we develop herd immunity (the resistance of spread of disease in the group of population) .(for long term solution)

(For short term solution) Testing should be done rapidly in all parts of the world. At least 2% of susceptible people or weak people are to be tested in order to gain significant benefit of lock down.